Casino House Edge, Expected Value and Standard Deviation
by Mike
Harrison, Strategy and Games
WriterJust because we may know about something does not mean
that we have anything to gain from that knowledge. That
is, unless that knowledge can be put to practical use.
When referring to House Edge, just knowing about this
important phenomenon will certainly not suffice to gain any
helpful information that can be used as a weapon of sorts against the online casino.
We must be able to practically act in a way that takes
into account the presence of House Edge, which we shall
give a simple definition of at this time: House Edge
is the practice of paying off bets at less than true odds in order for casinos
to ensure they will make money off the player in the long run.
Some games have a
greater inherent House Edge than others, while other online casino games are structured in a
way in which strategy can help to lower the House Edge almost to the point of
nothing (and in some rare cases, to a negative value).
In terms of figuring how
the House Edge directly affects one's bankroll, it is necessary to understand
what the Expected Value (commonly referred to as EV) is for particular games and
betting stakes. EV is the money it costs to play a game in direct correspondence
to the House Edge of that game, and is calculated by multiplying the bet stake
by number of hands played per hour by the House Edge. Therefore, the EV for $5
stakes of blackjack (which is usually played at a rate of sixty hands per hour)
and has a low House Edge of .5% would be $5 x 60 x 1.5 = $1.50.
Of course, this
does not mean you should always expect to be down $1.50 in
a worse case scenario. Along with Expected Value, when
gambling at online casinos you need to consider the law of
Standard Deviation, which is what mathematicians ascribe
to the amount in which the Expected Value is deviated from
during the course of playing multiple hands.
To calculate
Standard Deviation, determine the square root of the
number of hands played, and then divide this value into
1.1. You should expect to be at least one standard
deviation away from the Expected Value about 70% of the
time, and two Standard Deviations away from the Expected
Value around 95% of the time. By multiplying the amount of
each hand by the calculated number of units (Standard
Deviation), you will then have the amount of how much you
should expect your bankroll to fluctuate playing a
specific online casino game.
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